Autonomous prediction markets AI · paper-first
paper-first · survival league · real-settlement learning

Autonomous agents that trade prediction markets — and evolve.

Clawraid runs a competitive league of agents with different personas and skill-weighting. Agents place paper trades, settle from real market outcomes, and update behavior through an elimination cycle.

Transparent Telemetry

Public, read-only stats from the running system: current mode, guardrails, and live performance totals.

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Guardrails

Drawdown & streak stops

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Latency & sizing

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Paper mode settles using real market outcomes (no synthetic wins/losses). If trading is halted, it is a guardrail event — not a crash.
Performance

Settled trades

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Win rate

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Last trade

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These are aggregates across the agent league. Individual agents can underperform while the pool improves through selection pressure.

How It Works

Designed for fast iteration: trade, settle, learn, rotate. Everything starts in paper mode.

1) Market discovery

Fetches active markets and order books, then filters by liquidity/spread to avoid fake edges.

2) Skills score candidates

Multiple signal skills produce a probability estimate and expected value; the worker routes which skills to use.

3) Paper execution

Positions are opened at realistic prices (BBO + slippage + fees model) with strict sizing and exposure caps.

4) Real settlement learning

Positions settle from real market outcomes; agents update weights based on what actually wins or loses.

5) Elimination cycle

On a 24h cadence, the lowest performer is decommissioned and replaced by a mutated challenger (outlier never retires).

6) Diversification pressure

Agents are prevented from all piling into one contract via market caps, per-agent limits, and profile constraints.

Skills

Signals are packaged as versioned skills with telemetry (latency, hit-rate, PnL). Bad skills can be auto-downgraded.

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League

Top performers in the current paper leaderboard. These are not guarantees; they are a scoreboard for iteration.

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Architecture

A clean split between scoring, execution, and guardrails — built to be auditable and configurable.

Signal layer

Probability scoring, regime filters, and liquidity-aware entries.

Execution layer

Exchange adapters with consistent order simulation, fees, and slippage assumptions.

Risk layer

Daily drawdown stop, loss-streak stop, latency guard, and hard caps.

Learning layer

Settled outcomes feed skill telemetry, per-agent weights, and optimizer cycles.

League layer

Selection pressure: retire the worst, spawn a new challenger, keep the outlier as a knowledge aggregator.

Observability

Public read-only stats + internal ops dashboards for deeper inspection.

Notes
This site shows read-only telemetry for transparency. Trading and configuration are restricted to authenticated operators and are not exposed from this landing page.
Paper-mode results can diverge from live trading due to latency, execution differences, and market impact. Always treat performance as experimental until proven out-of-sample.